The Power of Numbers
Twelve Million to the "Barricades"?

Matt Berg at Crooked Media in his "What A Day" newsletter:on June 16, 2025:

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"But Americans are hitting the streets in record numbers compared to Trump’s first term."

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​"It’s encouraging to look at (turnouts) in the context of the 3.5 percent rule. Research shows that nonviolent protests that engage at least 3.5 percent of the country’s population have never failed to bring change — and they’re twice as likely to succeed than armed conflict. Twelve million is roughly that percentage of the U.S. population."​

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"“It's not exactly a magic number,” said Erica Chenoweth, a Harvard Kennedy School professor who studies political violence, and who conducted the 3.5 percent rule research, in a podcast with Jon Favreau of Crooked Media [available on You Tube]. But it’s helpful with understanding how the rule works: When enough people are actively engaged in civil disobedience, it creates economic and cultural influence that causes people from the opponent’s camp to defect.

 

"Protests could become so large that Trump supporters begin to question their support for him.

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"Anti-Trump protestors are off to a very strong start. There have been three times as many people taking part in protests during the first four months of Trump’s term, compared to the same period in 2017, according to Harvard’s Crowd Counting Consortium. "

 

​“"We are in historical levels of mobilization,” Chenoweth said, “even if the muzzle velocity of the news coming out of Washington obscures the fact.”"