Texas Democrat James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued and corrupt attorney general Trump backed for the Senate. Both Trump and Paxton have an affinity for corruption, and both have been impeached.  In South Carolina, pediatrician Annie Andrews defeated Darline Graham, the Republican Trump handpicked to succeed her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, whose only qualification was that she shared the same last name. The irony did not require a focus group: Trump’s chosen candidates lost in two states he had carried comfortably just two years ago.

 

Florida apparently did not heed the message the rest of the country reacted to.  Florida was virtually alone in declining to change the channel.  

​

Republican Byron Donalds won the governor’s race, and Republican Ashley Moody held her Senate seat. Yet both contests were close, very close: Donalds beat Democrat David Jolly by less than two points, and Moody defeated Angie Nixon by about three. Democrats also broke or blocked a Republican legislative supermajority. Florida did not stand alone in voting Republican; it stood out because it kept statewide Republican control while the Democratic wave reached deep-red states.  

​

The explanation is not mysterious. Florida entered the election much redder than it used to be. Trump carried it by about 13 points in 2024, Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 1.5 million registered voters, the Republican outspent the Democrats by more than $35 million and the national GOP supported the Republican candidates whereas the national Democratic party did not support our candidates to any significant extent. The wave narrowed the gap; it did not erase a decade of movement. Still, Florida’s Republican leaders might want to reconsider the comforting theory that voters have given them a permanent lease on power.

​

The “tax cut” that comes with a bill

​If high gas prices, corruption, and incompetence were not enough to convince Florida voters to replace the governing GOP, they are about to get the message. Florida voters also approved Amendment 3, a property-tax measure that was deceptively marketed as relief for homeowners. It increases the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and then to $250,000 in 2028. It sounds better than it is and it doesn’t mean every Floridian: renters receive no direct benefit, and school taxes are excluded.

​

The money to pay for basic services must come from somewhere. Property taxes help pay for local services such as fire, police, parks, roads, libraries and other municipal needs. Amendment 3 reduces that revenue and restricts how remaining funds may be used. Local officials could respond by cutting services, raising fees, or shifting more of the tax burden onto rental and commercial properties although there are lots of constraints around what local governments can do to raise additional revenue.

​

Renters may then see higher housing costs without receiving the homeowner exemption themselves. The Florida Apartment Association’s analysis estimated that an average apartment’s property-tax bill could rise by more than $400 by 2028 if local governments raise rates to compensate; in addition, the amendment is likely to significantly reduce the autonomy of local governments as they will have to ask Tallahassee for funds to support many of their basic services.

​

Voters were understandably confused. A judge ordered the original ballot language rewritten after finding it misleading; opponents had challenged its title and summary for selling the benefit while blurring the effects and not being clear as to who would qualify. The measure still passed. The result is a neat Florida political trick: promise a visible saving today, leave local governments to work out how to pay for tomorrow.

​

That does not prove voters misunderstood the final language, or that Amendment 3 decided the governor’s race. But the measure’s passage alongside other close statewide contests shows how hard it can be for candidates to make reasoned arguments that can compete with misleading but appealing messages. These messages and the ridiculous threat of “socialism” were sold with virtually unlimited funds. David Jolly was reported to have been outspent by his opponent 6 to 1. The consequences will become clearer when local budgets and rent renewals arrive—and those consequences may shape the next election more forcefully than Tuesday’s campaign ads did.

​

Conclusion

Trump’s party lost Senate seats in places where Republicans expected loyalty to carry the day. In Texas, Trump-backed Paxton lost; in South Carolina, Trump-backed Graham lost. Kansas, Texas and South Carolina are not Democratic strongholds. Their results make it harder to dismiss the election as a quirk confined to blue states. 

​

Florida’s Republican leaders can point to their wins. They can also point to Amendment 3 and call it a mandate for tax relief. The catch is that voters will eventually meet the other side of that bargain: the rent, the fee, the condo assessment, the fire station that needs funding, as well as many unmet service needs. 

​

If Florida still seems unmoved by the national revolt, it may simply be waiting for the invoice. Maybe Florida voters will need a wake-up call that is more than a rise in food costs and gas prices, but that message is coming. When it does arrive, the blue tsunami will arrive on our shores, and that day is not that far off.

 

For those of us in Florida, irrespective of our party, our assignment will be to stay involved, to present constructive alternatives, to keep our good candidates engaged and to vote for new people as soon as we next get the chance.